Polymarket と Kalshi の本日のスポーツ確率

Name: Polymarket と Kalshi の本日のスポーツ確率 — 717 試合と上級者のポジション
Creator: jp.tips

2026-11-13 12:34 UTC 時点で、今後 48 時間に Polymarket または Kalshi で公開価格がある試合は 717 試合です。下表は試合開始時刻（UTC+9）順に、各サイドの確率・価格の出所・上級者のポジション数を示します。

開始	試合	確率（ホーム · 引き分け · アウェイ）	出所	上級者ポジション
11-13 19:00	GamerLegion – Cyber Hero Dota 2	66% · — · 33%	Polymarket	104
11-13 19:00	PlayTime – HULIGANI DreamLeague	1% · — · 98%	Polymarket	128
11-13 19:00	InterActive Philippines – Red John European Pro League (Dota 2)	61% · — · 38%	Polymarket	6
11-13 19:30	Akita Northern Happinets – Diamond Dolphins Japan B League	1% · — · 99%	Polymarket	5
11-13 19:30	A Team – Victory No Limits China National Tournament	59% · — · 41%	Polymarket	0
11-13 19:30	Team Jerry – Team Bratishkin CS2	27% · — · 73%	Polymarket	6
11-13 20:00	Vasteras SK – IFブロマポイカルナ Club Friendlies	35% · 50% · 14%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	G2 – Team Falcons BLAST Rivals	53% · — · 46%	Polymarket	308
11-13 20:00	NK Nafta Lendava 1903 – NKスラヴェン・ベルポ Club Friendlies	26% · 26% · 47%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:30	TPS – FCイルヴェス Club Friendlies	11% · 21% · 66%	Polymarket	1
11-13 20:30	TSVハルトベルク – フローリツドルファーAC Club Friendlies	48% · 33% · 18%	Polymarket	3
11-13 20:30	Hyper Tide Gaming – Any Questions Gaming China National Tournament	15% · — · 85%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:30	Team Falcons – T1 OCS Asia	46% · — · 53%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:45	ex-ENCE – Noir Verse European Pro League (CS2)	37% · — · 63%	Kalshi	0
11-13 20:45	The Chosen Few – BRUTE SQ United21	27% · — · 72%	Polymarket	36
11-13 21:00	Dynamo Dresden – Dukla Praha Club Friendlies	15% · 9% · 75%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	Kapfenberger SV – NK Uljanik Pula Club Friendlies	92% · 4% · 3%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	ex-Zero Tenacity – BakS eSports CCT Europe	34% · — · 65%	Polymarket	39
11-13 21:00	Xipto Esports – Fourdaboy Asia Pacific Predator League	27% · — · 73%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	Salamander – Sharper Esport Asia Pacific Predator League	62% · — · 38%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	Alter Ego x Kertanegara – Surprise Asia Pacific Predator League	59% · — · 41%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	potn9ki – oveA Esports Pro Circuit	42% · — · 57%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	FK Novi Pazar – FK Otrant-Olympic Club Friendlies	33% · 33% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	NKイストラ1961 – Kalcer Radomlje Club Friendlies	33% · 33% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:10	Rakuzan – Aura Farmers Mobile Legends	57% · — · 42%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:10	GenOne – Team ACES NODWIN Clutch Series	33% · — · 67%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:20	Team korya_mc – Team leva2k CS2	26% · — · 73%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:30	Butterfly – PRIVATE CCT Europe	47% · — · 53%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	サッカーモザンビーク代表 – サッカーエチオピア代表 Africa Cup of Nations	60% · 25% · 13%	Kalshi	7
11-13 22:00	Zambia – サッカーブルンジ代表 Africa Cup of Nations	58% · 26% · 16%	Kalshi	3
11-13 22:00	サッカーコモロ代表 – Congo Africa Cup of Nations	51% · 29% · 18%	Polymarket	6
11-13 22:00	PARIVISION – Yellow Submarine Dota 2	93% · — · 7%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	Turma do Pagode – Rush CCT South America	75% · — · 25%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	Spirit Academy – 4ikibamboni European Pro League (Dota 2)	58% · — · 42%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	SVリート – First Vienna Club Friendlies	33% · 34% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:00	UTA Arad – FC Bihor Oradea Club Friendlies	3% · 93% · 3%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:00	NK Varaždin – NK Maribor Club Friendlies	33% · 33% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:15	Team NS – Buster Club CS2	51% · — · 48%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:15	Crazy Raccoon – ZETA DIVISION OCS Asia	49% · — · 51%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:30	The Soulless Team – Bushido Wildcats Mobile Legends	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:30	ラコフ・チェンストホヴァ – KS Lechia Gdansk Club Friendlies	32% · 34% · 32%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:00	Team Allied – potn9ki Asgard Championship	51% · — · 49%	Kalshi	1
11-13 23:00	Saint Sinners – Balkan Outlaws ESL Challenger League	49% · — · 51%	Kalshi	0
11-13 23:00	6yuBoJlbl – Drama eSports ESL Challenger League	62% · — · 38%	Kalshi	0
11-13 23:00	maybe – mixLVLT ESL Challenger League	62% · — · 37%	Kalshi	0
11-13 23:00	Four Magic – Alliance ESL Challenger League	7% · — · 93%	Kalshi	0
11-13 23:00	HNKリエカ – HNK Orijent Club Friendlies	52% · 10% · 36%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:10	United Arab Emirates – サッカーホンジュラス代表 Fifa Friendly	45% · 29% · 25%	Polymarket	21
11-13 23:30	サッカーサウジアラビア代表 – サッカー大韓民国代表 Fifa Friendly	19% · 27% · 53%	Polymarket	51
11-13 23:30	Froglings – PuckChamp DreamLeague	85% · — · 15%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:30	Seventh Letter Gaming – Rojali Asia Pacific Predator League	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:45	サッカーカタール代表 – サッカーオーストラリア代表 Fifa Friendly	23% · 27% · 49%	Polymarket	33
11-14 00:00	サッカークウェート代表 – バスケットボールシリア代表 Fifa Friendly	27% · 29% · 43%	Kalshi	5
11-14 00:00	サッカーイラク代表 – バスケットボールレバノン代表 Fifa Friendly	72% · 20% · 8%	Kalshi	2
11-14 00:00	Revise – eSuba Exort Fiesta	54% · — · 46%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	FORZE Reload – Walczaki CCT Europe	74% · — · 26%	Polymarket	0
11-14 00:00	ex-UPGRADE – Drama eSports NODWIN Clutch Series	62% · — · 38%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Omnix – HARD GRIND Mobile Legends	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-14 00:00	Betclic Apogee Esports – Leo Team CCT Europe	69% · — · 31%	Polymarket	0
11-14 00:00	STATE – BBL PGL (CS2)	27% · — · 73%	Kalshi	3
11-14 00:00	LUNTIKI – 33 PGL (CS2)	49% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-14 00:00	angry birds – Team Synapse Esports Pro Circuit	84% · — · 15%	Polymarket	0
11-14 01:00	サッカーカーボベルデ代表 – サッカーリベリア代表 Africa Cup of Nations	78% · 16% · 5%	Kalshi	3
11-14 01:00	バスケットボールナイジェリア代表 – サッカータンザニア代表 Africa Cup of Nations	82% · 13% · 4%	Kalshi	4
11-14 01:00	サッカー南アフリカ共和国代表 – サッカーケニア代表 Africa Cup of Nations	77% · 16% · 5%	Kalshi	1
11-14 01:00	Gabon – サッカーレソト代表 Africa Cup of Nations	78% · 17% · 5%	Kalshi	1
11-14 01:00	サッカーブルキナファソ代表 – サッカーモーリタニア代表 Africa Cup of Nations	61% · 26% · 12%	Kalshi	1
11-14 01:00	サッカーチュニジア代表 – バスケットボールリビア代表 Africa Cup of Nations	70% · 21% · 7%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Loyola Maryland – Towson Women's College Basketball	44% · — · 56%	Kalshi	1
11-14 01:00	Delaware St. – American Women's College Basketball	22% · — · 78%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Purdue Fort Wayne – Valparaiso Women's College Basketball	89% · — · 11%	Kalshi	1
11-14 01:00	Team Liquid – LGD Gaming Dota 2	65% · — · 35%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Galorys – RED Canids Academy CCT South America	81% · — · 19%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Team cutierover – PCH3LK1N Club CS2	44% · — · 56%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Team NS – WorldEdit Club CS2	50% · — · 49%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Team Allied – Inner Circle European Pro League (Dota 2)	37% · — · 63%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:30	Oklahoma – Oral Roberts Women's College Basketball	99% · — · 1%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:30	FKアウストリア・ウィーン – SR Donaufeld Club Friendlies	42% · 14% · 43%	Polymarket	0
11-14 01:30	Honka Espoo – Bisons Loimaa Finland Korisliiga	65% · — · 35%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:30	Helsinki Seagulls – Kipina Basket Finland Korisliiga	75% · — · 24%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	サッカーモルドバ代表 – サッカーカザフスタン代表 UEFA Nations League	36% · 31% · 31%	Kalshi	68
11-14 02:00	Belmont – Troy Women's College Basketball	57% · — · 43%	Kalshi	1
11-14 02:00	Rapid Wien II – SV Donau Club Friendlies	44% · 14% · 40%	Polymarket	0
11-14 02:00	Kufstein Towers – Swans Gmunden Austria BSL	18% · — · 82%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	BC Slovan Bratislava – Nitra Blue Wings Slovakia SBL	93% · — · 7%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Green Bay – Viterbo Men's College Basketball	99% · — · 1%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	MKS Start Lublin – GTK Gliwice PLK	54% · — · 46%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Regnum4Games – Vitality Academy ESEA	41% · — · 59%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:30	Cibona – FMP ABA League	71% · — · 28%	Polymarket	1
11-14 02:30	Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna Euroleague Basketball	66% · — · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-14 02:30	Hamburger SV W – Mainz 05 W German Women's Bundesliga	56% · 21% · 21%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:30	Texas St. – Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Women's College Basketball	95% · — · 5%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Younglings – SINQU ESEA	57% · — · 43%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	CU Técnica de Cajamarca – CD Los Chankas Liga 1	<1% · 98% · <1%	Polymarket	47
11-14 03:00	Kloetinge – Hoek Tweede Divisie	25% · 22% · 51%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Nantes W – Lens W French Women's Première Ligue	58% · 24% · 18%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Utah St. – Bethune-Cookman Women's College Basketball	55% · — · 45%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Traiskirchen Lions – Kapfenberg Bulls Austria BSL	64% · — · 36%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Eagles Graz – BBC Nord Dragonz Austria BSL	73% · — · 27%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	SKN St. Polten Basketball – Flyers Wels Austria BSL	41% · — · 59%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Zlatorog Lasko – Polzela Slovenia 1. SKL	33% · — · 67%	Kalshi	1
11-14 03:00	SD Ponferradina – CP Cacereno SAD Primera Federación	44% · 32% · 22%	Polymarket	3
11-14 03:00	KAMUI – Aurora Young Blood Exort Fiesta	48% · — · 52%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	ex-RUSTEC – Nexus CCT Europe	46% · — · 54%	Kalshi	2
11-14 03:00	Cyber Hero – Xipto Esports DreamLeague	60% · — · 39%	Polymarket	0
11-14 03:00	ex-INOX Division – BakS eSports NODWIN Clutch Series	46% · — · 54%	Kalshi	1
11-14 03:00	UMF Grindavik – UMF Sindri Men's Iceland Basketball Premier League	80% · — · 19%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Team International – CGN Esports Spike Series	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-14 03:00	Omega – Inner Circle Academy CCT Europe	46% · — · 54%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	eternal premium – Spirit Academy Green ESEA	43% · — · 56%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Glitchtech Esports – JUMBO TEAM ESEA	29% · — · 71%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:00	Kk Nis 1996 – KK Vojvodina KLS	53% · — · 46%	Polymarket	0
11-14 03:00	old blood – No Hoodwink Esports Pro Circuit	31% · — · 68%	Polymarket	0
11-14 03:00	underw0rld – Mira Gamers Club Liga Série A	28% · — · 71%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:04	BC Lulea – Sodertalje BBK Sweden SBL	77% · — · 23%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:04	Boraas Basket – Koping Stars Sweden SBL	88% · — · 12%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:04	Uppsala Basket – KFUM Umea Sweden SBL	70% · — · 30%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:04	Nassjo Basket – Norrkoping Dolphins Sweden SBL	12% · — · 87%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:04	Jamtland Basket – Hogsbo Basket Sweden SBL	92% · — · 8%	Kalshi	0
11-14 03:45	Team Recrent – PCH3LK1N Club CS2	74% · — · 26%	Kalshi	0

確率は各プラットフォームの表示価格（Polymarket は最良売り気配、Kalshi は直近の約定価格）です。サイドごとに個別に提示しており正規化していないため、合計が 100% をわずかに超えることがあります。

市場の本命の的中率

直近 7 日（2026-11-06〜2026-11-13）に試合前の価格があった終了済み 2369 試合のうち、試合前の確率が最も高かった側が 1592 試合で勝ち、的中率は 67.2% でした。直近 30 日では 9285 試合で的中率 63.3%。

本命の試合前確率 (30d)	試合数	本命の勝利	的中率
<50%	1968	860	43.7%
50-60%	2286	1167	51.0%
60-75%	2585	1711	66.2%
75+%	2446	2138	87.4%

競技 (7d)	試合数	本命の勝利	的中率
basketball	953	757	79.4%
soccer	898	501	55.8%
esports	500	320	64.0%
football	16	14	87.5%
baseball	2	0	0.0%

集計方法：試合開始前 24 時間以内の最後の価格を使い、確率が最も高い側を本命とします。サッカーは引き分けの価格を含む 3 択市場のみを集計しています。

Polymarket と Kalshi の本日のスポーツ確率

市場の本命の的中率

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